Tony's Market Insights
A Look Back: Tony's Insights From 2025
2025 was a year defined by stability in activity but meaningful strength in pricing. Even with one fewer sale than 2024 (21 versus 22), buyers spent 13.7% more total dollars in Outpost Estates, and values rose across nearly every measurable indicator. The median sale price increased 10%, price per square foot rose almost 6%, and buyers gravitated toward larger homes with median square footage up 12% and median lot size up 10.5% year-over-year. While part of the median price growth reflects the mix of higher quality and larger homes selling this year, the increase in price per square foot confirms that true appreciation took place across the neighborhood.
What stood out most was the return of the luxury segment. After recording zero sales over $5M in 2024, the neighborhood saw four such transactions in 2025, including a $12M on La Presa that reset the top end of the market and lifted the average sale price by more than 19%. Even with this high-end momentum, the fundamentals remained clear and strong. Almost one in four homes sold over asking this year compared to only 9% last year.
Lifestyle amenities also continued to drive premiums. Homes with pools carried roughly a one-million-dollar median price premium over non-pool homes, a trend that held consistent across both years. And while Days on Market increased to a median of 44 days, which is a 60% rise, the pricing data points to a patient and selective buyer pool rather than weakening demand. When a home was well prepared, private, renovated, or positioned on a superior lot, buyers were willing to pay for it.
Overall, 2025 felt less like a market chasing momentum and more like one re-pricing quality. Buyers demonstrated a clear willingness to pay more for the right home in Outpost Estates.
A Look Ahead: Tony's 2026 Outlook
2026 is expected to be a year of gradual normalization rather than dramatic shifts. Forecasts suggest mortgage rates will remain in the low-to-mid 6% range, which may improve affordability slightly but will not dramatically change buying power. National price growth is projected to be modest, and this generally creates a stable environment where buyers feel more confident and sellers who prepare properly can still achieve strong results.
In Outpost Estates specifically, inventory will be the driving force behind pricing and pace. There are currently 19 active listings in the neighborhood, which is one of the highest counts we have seen in recent years. If this elevated supply trend continues into 2026, we may see a softer rate of price growth, longer Days on Market, and increased competition among sellers. Buyers will have more options, and the homes that are thoughtfully prepared and positioned will separate themselves clearly from the rest.
The premium for high quality properties is expected to remain intact. Renovated homes, architectural homes, and properties with privacy or strong indoor-outdoor living will continue to command attention quickly. As a whole, 2026 is shaping up to be a balanced year for Outpost Estates, with opportunity on both sides. Sellers will need to be strategic, and buyers may find more breathing room than they have had in the past several years.